In his classic book ?The Innovator?s Dilemma? Prof. Clayton Christensen of Harvard present several compelling cases of great organizations that fail because they did not address disruptive technologies with the unique mindset required for in managing disruption. When these disruptive technologies appeared on the horizon there were few takers for the technology because there were no immediate applications for them. For e.g. the hydraulic excavator?s performance was inferior to the existing predominant manual excavator. But in course of time these technologies improved significantly to displace existing technologies. Similarly the appearance of 3.5 inch disk had no immediate takers in desktop computers but made its way to the laptop.
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Similarly mini computer giant DEC ignored the advent of the PC era and focused all their attention on making more powerful mini-computers. This led to the ultimate demise of DEC and several other organizations in this space. There are several such examples of organizations that went defunct of disruptive technologies cannibalizing established technologies.
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The last couple of months we have seen technology trends pouring in.? It is now accepted that cloud computing, mobile broadband, social networks, big data, LTE, Smart Grid, and Internet of Things will be key players in the world of our future. We are now in a point in time when serious disruption is not just possible but seems extremely likely. The IT Market Research firm IDC in its Directions 2012 believes that we are in the cusp of a Third Platform that will dominate the IT landscape.
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There are several technologies that have been appearing on the periphery and have only gleaned marginal interest for e.g. Super Wi-Fi which uses unlicensed spectrum to access larger distances of up to 100 kms, WiMAX which provides speeds of 40 Mbps for distances of up to 50 km. WiMAX has not led to widespread adoption in comparison to its competitor LTE. Whitespaces is also a technology that has been trialed by a few companies.
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The disruption in the near future will be because of a paradigm change which I would like to refer as ?Neighborhood Area Computing (NAC)?.? It is inevitable that technology will veer towards neighborhood computing given the bandwidth congestion issues of WAN. A neighborhood area network (NAN) will supersede the need for a WAN of today
This will lead to three main trends
Death of the Personal Computer:? The PC/laptop will soon give way to a cloud book similar to Google?s Chrome book. Not only will we store all our data on the cloud (music, photos, videos) we will also use the cloud for our daily computing needs. Given the high speeds of theNANthis will be quite feasible in the future. The cloud will remove our worries about virus attacks, patch updates and the need to buy new software. ?We will also begin to trust our data in the cloud as we progress to the future. Moreover the pay-per-use will be very attractive to consumers. Enterprises will also have an in-house private cloud with virtual desktops.
Exploding Datacenters:? A serious shortcoming of the public cloud is WAN latency. It is quite likely that with increases in processing powers and storage coupled with dropping prices that cloud providers will have hundreds of data centers with a few 1000 servers for each city rather than a few mega data centers with 10,000?s of servers.? Maintaining data centers in each individual city will solve 2 problems. One it will build into the cloud geographical redundancy besides providing excellent performance as NAN latencies will be significantly less.
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Neighborhood Area Networks (NAN):? Neighborhood Area Networks are inevitable given the rising importance of smart grids and M2M coupled with the current WAN latencies. The data generated from smart grids, m2m networks and mobile broadband will need to be stored and action taken immediately through big data analytics. For all these technologies to work providing instantaneous feedback shorter range technologies like WiMAX, Super WiFi or WhiteSpaces will come to the rescue. These technologies will improve significantly and fill in the need for handling neighborhood high speed data
The future definitely points computing in the neighborhood.
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Source: http://gigadom.wordpress.com/2012/03/19/the-next-frontier/
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